All You Need To Know About The Election Through a Conversation With an Imaginary Person
So, this is it. The one nobody wanted, nobody was waiting for and nobody is going to enjoy. Prime Minister Theresa May announced yesterday there would be a snap election on June 8th. Just two years removed from the last General Election and a year after the Brexit vote, Britain is going back to the polls whether they like it or not.
Wait, why exactly?
Who knows? The Government claims it is because the opposition were going to get in the way of Brexit negotiations, and the Prime Minister claims she wants a clean mandate to do her thing. However, the government hasn’t lost a single vote in parliament on Brexit, so it’s safe to assume this is more of a power grab. The opposition is very weak at the moment, and with an increased majority the Conservatives can push through their hard Brexit plans.
And nobody really wants this?
Nobody! The Prime Minister said she was reluctant, many Labour MP’s are against it, and the general public are sick to death of elections. This lady sums up the mood perfectly:
Conservative and Brexit supporters are happy as their guys are in power, people who hate the Tories don’t want this as the opposition is in disarray, and the Scots are livid, as they were just denied a referendum vote due to the instability it would cause. NOBODY WANTS THIS!
It’s a pretty ballsy move, though?
Yes and no. Elections are always a risk, especially recently with the unpredictability of the votes in the US and over Brexit, but the polls have the Tories up by 17 points. Even with a huge margin or error that the polls deserve, things look very bleak for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. 6 Weeks is nowhere near enough time to turn the tides around, and May and the Tories know it.
Isn’t there a law that prevents snap elections based on polls?
There is indeed. The Fixed-Term Parliaments act of 2011 meant that elections would be held ever 5 years as a rule, unless two thirds of sitting MP’s agreed to a snap election.
Great, so Labour will block the motion in parliament?
Nooooope!
Why?
Who knows why Jeremy Corbyn does anything? It’s an admittedly tough situation, as if they block it the Tories can bash them whenever they want for being “anti-democratic”, on the other hand, if Labour are slaughtered, which looks likely at this early stage, the damage will be possibly terminal for the party. It’s the definition of lose-lose, but the former option seems like the most sensible. Corbyn has already welcomed the vote, though, so it looks like it’s happening
Are there any other parties that can stop the inevitable?
The Scottish National Party should hold most of their seats, and maybe pick up a few more, though there aren’t many left in Scotland they don’t hold. This should further their own mandate for an independence vote. The Liberal Democrats should pick up some new seats as well, having positioned themselves as the “anti-brexit party”. Their leader, Tim Farron, is slightly problematic, though, after refusing to say Homosexuality was not sinful in a TV interview yesterday (the man is a devout Christian) and many still don’t trust the Lib Dems after their stint in the coalition, which is a little unfair considering how unhinged the Conservatives have become since no longer having to share power.
What about Farage?
Aaah Ukip. Farage is no longer their figurehead, their current leader Paul Nuttall recently failed to win a seat in a by-election, and their only sitting MP recently quit the party. They will go after seats in traditional Labour strongholds, but now we’re leaving the EU they don’t really have much to campaign on. Expect them to still win a lot of votes, but it’s unlikely they’ll win many seats, if any.
So, no one can stop the Tories?
There is a chance, but it’s very slim, and would involve a very broad coalition of progressively minded parties. Lib Dems could win some Tory seats, and if Labour hold on to theirs, then the SNP, Lib Dems and Labour could conceivably form a coalition. There isn’t much hope, but never say never.
Have I heard something about an election fraud investigation?
Yep! Over 20 Tory MP’s are currently under investigation for overspending during the 2015 General Election. There are strict laws on how much a candidate is allowed to spend on their campaign, and if they are found to have significantly overspent, then suspension as an MP is a possibility. This would trigger several tightly contested by-elections that the Tories could well lose, meaning they lost their majority. The investigation was due to conclude very soon.
So, actually this election was pretty conveniently timed?
It is certainly fishy, but it’s much more likely that Labour’s weakness is what triggered the decision to do a snap election.
You don’t seem very happy about it?
I’m writing my dissertation on the implications of the Brexit vote. This totally f*cks my work. But this isn’t about me. It’s about some MP’s being a bit mean about the Brexit plan or something.
Is Brexit the main issue?
Of course it is. It will be until the very thought of the word makes you wan to kill yourself with the nearest hammer. But, don’t expect to be told what the Conservative plan for negotiations are. Their manifesto won’t tell you. They just want you to blindly trust that they know best. The other parties haven’t announced what they plan to reveal about their Brexit strategy.
We can watch them debate the issue, though, right?
Again, it’s a big fat NOPE! Theresa May has ruled out television debates.
What? Why?
Because she’ll have to defend the government’s record, and it hasn’t been great in many areas. There are a lot of manifesto promises that have gone unfulfilled, the NHS is in it’s worse shape ever, school standards are plummeting, child poverty is reaching decades high levels, the previous leader totally bungled the Remain campaign, inflation is high and wages are stagnant. The state of the country isn’t all bad, but there are certainly a lot of sticks to beat her with in a debate, and she can’t just blame the previous Labour government like Cameron did last go-around.
Do you think the campaign will at least be civil?
Take one look at The Daily Mail’s headline this morning, and you tell me?
Lynton Crosby, the dog-whistle master himself, has been hired by the Tories to work his scare-mongering once again. Jeremy Corbyn will attempt to take the high road, and be called a pinko-bolshevick-leninist-maoist-psycho for his trouble. It will get very ugly very quickly.
So, how are we meant to decide?
I can help. Like last time, I’ll be examining the major manifestos before the election. That’s if there is enough time to author them and print them in 6 weeks. SHAMELESS PLUG!
Is this election important?
Probably the most important general election of my lifetime. Brexit is sealed, but how we venture from here is going to shape our country for decades if not centuries. Good job we have plenty of time to prepare and make an informed decision. Shit….. Wait…….
Is this going to suck?
It’s going to suck so bad. Be prepared to be miserable for the next 6 weeks Imaginary Person.